Preparing for the 2025 Market, you might have seen some recent charts comparing the global money supply with Bitcoin, which is highly correlated. This is from Majid Faiz. Initially, this chart shows that we are getting a contraction in the global money supply. Will Bitcoin and crypto contract over the next few weeks or so? Uh, let’s go through that in this article, small technical details in a much broader structural ball Market that’s going to carry on throughout 2025, in my opinion, and I’ll show you some data below.
Why a 15% Drop Isn’t Just a Pullback or What It Means for 2025’s Bull Market?
We’re not really seeing a pullback right now. Coming down 15% from the all-time high doesn’t qualify as a pullback, this is just normal price action. I actually hope we go lower. If you look at the daily chart, you’ll notice that the 91-92k level would provide significant support. A real pullback in a bull market could bring us down to around the 89k level, though I’m not sure we’ll even reach that point. The reason for this is that M2 (the money supply) is measured in dollars. While it may appear to be contracting, it’s actually not. If you check the money supply statistics, M2 is currently increasing, it’s positive. This means the money supply is expanding.
On the other hand, Bitcoin has minimal inflation. As a result, when the money supply grows (while Bitcoin remains relatively static), Bitcoin’s price tends to rise in dollar terms. Essentially, the dollar is strong right now, but no one, not even the U.S, really wants a strong dollar. A weaker dollar helps stimulate the economy by boosting manufacturing and exports, which is a strategy to manage debt-to-GDP levels. That’s the broader narrative heading Preparing for the 2025 Market:, and I believe this will shape the bull market for that year.
Why a Bigger Pullback Could Be the Perfect Opportunity to Buy?
I’m actually hoping for a bigger pullback so I can keep buying — we’re still in the accumulation phase. Looking ahead to 2025, if the market is flooded with liquidity and the dollar weakens, that will drive riskier assets higher on the risk curve. This is what typically kicks off altcoin season, which is what many people are anticipating.
For now, though, Bitcoin continues to outperform everything else. If you’re Preparing for the 2025 Market, check out Bybit. They are offering a $30,000 deposit bonus (link in the description). If you can’t trade directly on Bybit, their decentralized exchange (DEX) is great too. Just connect your wallet, and you’ll get a permanent fee discount. I’ll leave a link for that as well.
How Government Spending Cuts Could Impact the Economy and Shape the 2025 Market?
There’s going to be a lot of uncertainty over the next few years, even in the coming months, with a new president in office. Doge is focusing on cutting government spending and reducing government jobs. The issue is that, according to Grothis, the government could shrink by 5-10%.
The government currently accounts for about 35% of U.S. GDP, and even more in the UK. To put it in perspective, imagine if a single company made up 35% of your GDP and suddenly announced plans to cut spending, investment, and jobs. That wouldn’t exactly signal a bullish outlook for the economy. This is essentially what happens when the government scales back. Even though much of government spending fuels consumer activity, it still helps sustain GDP and prevents a full-blown economic collapse. Without it, the free market would naturally drive GDP and prices lower, which could destabilize the system.
Debt, Asset Values, and the Road to a Potential Recession: Navigating the Economic Uncertainty Ahead
We all hold debt against assets, assuming those assets will rise in value over time. If you start cutting spending out of the economy, it could put significant downward pressure on GDP and inflation, potentially triggering a major recession. Essentially, it would bring prices back to more normal levels.
The problem is that if this happens, all the debt tied to those assets risks becoming insolvent, leading to widespread bankruptcies. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding how this will play out, and no one can predict the short-term movements with certainty.
Looking at the bigger picture, if the government steps back, the hope is that the private sector can drive economic growth. This would involve some degree of currency devaluation since banks need to issue credit to fuel that growth. However, if that doesn’t happen, the risks increase significantly.
Bitcoin vs. Central Bank Balance Sheets or Why Bitcoin Is the Trade of Our Generation and a Hedge Against Currency Debasement
When the Fed sees signs of a weakening GDP, they’ll step in with stimulus cutting rates or providing liquidity in some form. This often leads to more money printing. Ultimately, I believe this results in currency debasement, which is why assets like Bitcoin and gold become so important.
If you look at gold versus the Fed’s balance sheet, you need to outperform by around 10% per year. That 10% is effectively the long-term rate of currency debasement for the dollar. In reality, it’s even worse for other currencies. If you’re earning 10% annually, you’re not actually gaining in terms of real purchasing power. You have to exceed that rate to genuinely grow your wealth. Gold tends to perform better than dollars or dollar-denominated debt, but it doesn’t consistently outpace the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet. In contrast, Bitcoin has massively outperformed gold measured in Bitcoin is down 99.9% over time. Bitcoin’s growth has outstripped the balance sheet expansion, though this won’t last forever.
That’s why I see Bitcoin as the trade of our generation. It represents global money and, over time, should become more stable and less volatile. But right now, it’s delivering 40-50% growth, which makes it a rare opportunity. The road ahead will be volatile, and no one can predict the short-term swings. But looking at the bigger picture, investors need to position themselves in strong assets like Bitcoin. This is the trade of our generation.
How the Ongoing Bull Market in Money Supply Impacts Inflation and Debt?
That chart I showed you at the beginning of the article with global money supply contract a bit maybe that’s this tiny bit right here but look we’re in a big ball market for money supply growth it’s positive we’re making high highs higher lows and look it can get to much higher-level here this was the pandemic here where Global money supply should have contracted GDP and inflation could have should have been Negative they just printed money and that means that GDP inflation it doesn’t measure anything in the real economy it just measures money supply Shenanigans they printed loads the price level Rose it will never go back they drew it down and now they need to de base the debt Again by raising the price level and the way you raise the price level is by De basing the currency units and so those things look more expensive and that means that the debt doesn’t become bankrupt and you just roll it over and over again so that’s what they’re doing and so you have to be in assets that pricing all this money the basement and we’re on the upswing so that’s the main thing here you can see here as well bill insurance this was essentially through the election in the states.
Why Bitcoin, Not Traditional Assets, Is the Key to Navigating Currency Debasement and Market Growth?
They just flooded liquidity into markets to pump markets higher because of course you can’t have a recession or anyone you know getting made redundant during the recession because that’s going to help you they failed anyway they lost and this is Bitcoin pricing it will in so how do you actually make returns here you have to price in all of this plus you know the the growth aspects of the economy if you want to outperform if you’re in the S&P this redline here look that’s great but it’s kind of more or less currency of the basement it’s a very broad Diversified index of very old companies that don’t have a lot of growth left right so then you go out the risk curve you go to NASDAQ which outperforms a little bit outperform but it’s still you know still very good companies very high quality companies now you go a bit further out the risk curve if you want more volatility Bitcoin is just outperforming everything else now I’ve got here indexes and gold because if you compare BTC to Nvidia or Tesla or micro strategy they’re much smaller things you know they’re just individual things right forth bulk of our portfolio we have to invest in large asset classes for the most part right and so you have those trades around the edges but the bulk of your portfolio has to be in a large Diversified index now.
The Trade of Our Generation and the Ultimate Global Index for Your Portfolio
Bitcoin is the trade of our generation, in my opinion. It’s the largest and most diversified index in the world because it represents money and money indexes everything. Anyone who owns Bitcoin whether an individual, corporation, or even a country is part of that index. Bitcoin reflects the global economy. It should eventually become the most boring asset in the world. In 25 years, it probably will be.
But right now, it’s outperforming everything else, growing at 40-50% per year. This is why Bitcoin stands out as the defining trade of our time. It’s beating altcoins, outperforming DeFi, and should make up the bulk of any portfolio.
In the past few months, DeFi and some altcoins have started to show stronger performance, hinting at the possibility of a new alt season around 2025. However, the best approach remains investing in the overall index. Bitcoin itself is the index. Some crypto market cap indexes and ETFs are emerging, offering broad exposure. While individual assets can outperform Bitcoin, the key is to focus on the larger picture. Right now, Bitcoin is surpassing the S&P and NASDAQ. It won’t last forever, but for now, it’s the trade of our generation.
Federal Reserve Strategy: How Rate Cuts and Inflation Could Shape the 2025 Bull and Bear Market Cycles?
Preparing for the 2025 Market: The market is now pricing in just 35 basis points of rate cuts next year, largely because of what the Fed said last week. However, next year is when the majority of refinancing needs to happen. I don’t think the government will want to refinance at rates over 4% on the short end. What I believe will happen is that the Fed will intervene – just like it always does. They’ll deny it, just like they denied inflation was transitory (even though they created and designed it). Now, they’re claiming they won’t cut rates next year, insisting they’ll keep them high.
But when the bulk of Treasury refinancing comes due, they’ll lower rates as much as possible to refinance, driving inflation up. This will trigger a bull market. Then, 6 to 12 months later, when inflation resurfaces, they’ll raise rates again, leading to the next bear market. These cycles repeat over and over. For now, the bull market is still intact. If you trade, check out Bybit – there’s a deposit bonus linked below. You can also trade on Apex through Bybit for a discount.
